The problem of multicollinearity in horizontal solar radiation estimation models and a new model for Turkey

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  author =       "Haydar Demirhan",
  title =        "The problem of multicollinearity in horizontal solar
                 radiation estimation models and a new model for
  journal =      "Energy Conversion and Management",
  volume =       "84",
  pages =        "334--345",
  year =         "2014",
  keywords =     "genetic algorithms, genetic programming, Eccentricity
                 correction factor, Entropy, Eureqa, Maximum possible
                 sunshine duration, Model selection criteria, Solar
                 declination angle, Statistical modelling",
  ISSN =         "0196-8904",
  DOI =          "doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2014.04.035",
  URL =          "",
  abstract =     "Due to the considerable decrease in energy resources
                 and increasing energy demand, solar energy is an
                 appealing field of investment and research. There are
                 various modelling strategies and particular models for
                 the estimation of the amount of solar radiation
                 reaching at a particular point over the Earth. In this
                 article, global solar radiation estimation models are
                 taken into account. To emphasise severity of
                 multicollinearity problem in solar radiation estimation
                 models, some of the models developed for Turkey are
                 revisited. It is observed that these models have been
                 identified as accurate under certain multicollinearity
                 structures, and when the multicollinearity is
                 eliminated, the accuracy of these models is
                 controversial. Thus, a reliable model that does not
                 suffer from multicollinearity and gives precise
                 estimates of global solar radiation for the whole
                 region of Turkey is necessary. A new nonlinear model
                 for the estimation of average daily horizontal solar
                 radiation is proposed making use of the genetic
                 programming technique. There is no multicollinearity
                 problem in the new model, and its estimation accuracy
                 is better than the revisited models in terms of
                 numerous statistical performance measures. According to
                 the proposed model, temperature, precipitation,
                 altitude, longitude, and monthly average daily
                 extraterrestrial horizontal solar radiation have
                 significant effect on the average daily global
                 horizontal solar radiation. Relative humidity and soil
                 temperature are not included in the model due to their
                 high correlation with precipitation and temperature,
                 respectively. While altitude has the highest relative
                 impact on the average daily horizontal solar radiation,
                 impact of temperature is greater than that of both
                 longitude and precipitation.",

Genetic Programming entries for Haydar Demirhan