On the basin-scale detection and attribution of human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation and streamflow

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@Article{Mondal:2012:WRR,
  author =       "Arpita Mondal and P. P. Mujumdar",
  title =        "On the basin-scale detection and attribution of
                 human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation
                 and streamflow",
  journal =      "Water Resources Research",
  year =         "2012",
  volume =       "48",
  number =       "10",
  pages =        "W10520",
  month =        oct,
  publisher =    "American Geophysical Union",
  keywords =     "genetic algorithms, genetic programming",
  ISSN =         "1944-7973",
  bibsource =    "OAI-PMH server at eprints.iisc.ernet.in",
  oai =          "oai:eprints.iisc.ernet.in:45379",
  type =         "Peer Reviewed",
  URL =          "http://eprints.iisc.ernet.in/45379/",
  URL =          "http://eprints.iisc.ernet.in/45379/1/wat_res_res_48_w10520_2012.pdf",
  DOI =          "doi:10.1029/2011WR011468",
  size =         "18 pages",
  abstract =     "Detecting and quantifying the presence of
                 human-induced climate change in regional hydrology is
                 important for studying the impacts of such changes on
                 the water resources systems as well as for reliable
                 future projections and policy making for adaptation. In
                 this article a formal fingerprint-based detection and
                 attribution analysis has been attempted to study the
                 changes in the observed monsoon precipitation and
                 streamflow in the rain-fed Mahanadi River Basin in
                 India, considering the variability across different
                 climate models. This is achieved through the use of
                 observations, several climate model runs, a principal
                 component analysis and regression based statistical
                 downscaling technique, and a Genetic Programming based
                 rainfall-runoff model. It is found that the decreases
                 in observed hydrological variables across the second
                 half of the 20th century lie outside the range that is
                 expected from natural internal variability of climate
                 alone at 95percent statistical confidence level, for
                 most of the climate models considered. For several
                 climate models, such changes are consistent with those
                 expected from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse
                 gases. However, unequivocal attribution to
                 human-induced climate change cannot be claimed across
                 all the climate models and uncertainties in our
                 detection procedure, arising out of various sources
                 including the use of models, cannot be ruled out.
                 Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities are
                 considered as other plausible natural external causes
                 of climate change. Time evolution of the anthropogenic
                 climate change ``signal'' in the hydrological
                 observations, above the natural internal climate
                 variability ``noise'' shows that the detection of the
                 signal is achieved earlier in stream-flow as compared
                 to precipitation for most of the climate models,
                 suggesting larger impacts of human-induced climate
                 change on streamflow than precipitation at the river
                 basin scale.",
  notes =        "GPTIPS",
}

Genetic Programming entries for Arpita Mondal Pradeep P Mujumdar

Citations